08 12 11 ICG – Urgent Media Release: DR Congo: Saving the Elections

Last week tens
of millions of Congolese cast ballots in only the second elections since the
country's brutal civil war. The vote marked the culmination of a troubled year
of preparations, with the playing field gradually skewed towards incumbent
president Joseph Kabila. Constitutional changes dropped the requirement for a
run-off, which, with opposition leaders failing to unite behind a candidate,
effectively split their vote. Kabila loyalists were appointed to the election
commission and the Supreme Court, which settles electoral disputes. Despite
discrepancies in registration figures, opposition parties and observers were
unable to audit voter rolls. The state-run media drummed up support for the
president. Nonetheless, considerably less popular than when he won the 2006
polls, Kabila faced stiff competition, especially from veteran opposition leader
Etienne Tshisekedi. With another candidate, Vital Kamerhe, threatening to sap
Kabila's votes in the Kivus vital to his win five years ago the president's
re-election was far from secure.

The vote itself
was plagued by chaotic management and reports of localised violence and rigging
including voter intimidation and pre-marked ballots. Scheduled on November 28,
it was extended for two days as materials arrived late and many names were
missing from voter lists. International observers, including from the EU and the
Carter Center, reported widespread irregularities though as few ventured outside
major towns they may have missed the worst abuses.

Counting has
been as unruly as voting, and dangerously opaque. Criteria for disqualifying
ballots are unclear, with Kinshasa an opposition stronghold disproportionately
affected. Most significantly, the electoral commission has refused to publish
results by polling station, which would permit their verification by opposition
parties and observers. Election day flaws were bad enough; but perceptions that
results are fiddled behind closed doors would spell disaster.

Congo's
electoral woes reflect the country's broader lack of democratic and
institutional development since 2006. But they also stem from weak international
and continental engagement. Despite reports by the UN Joint Human Rights Office
of human rights violations during the campaign, the UN mission, MONUSCO, has
been reluctant to criticise openly the government and the electoral authorities.
MONUSCO has also apparently shied away from providing the good offices envisaged
in its Security Council mandate; a vital role given the opposition's lack of
confidence in Congolese institutions. Donors too especially the EU and the UK,
who partly funded the polls, and the U.S. have been largely ineffective in
preventing Kabila's consolidation of power and stacking the decks.

A sense of
foreboding now hangs over Kinshasa. On the eve of elections a fierce crackdown
by the security forces against opposition protesters left, according to Human
Rights Watch, eighteen dead and more than 100 injured. During voting, opposition
supporters and authorities clashed in Kasai and Katanga, while other areas
reported sporadic violence, including election materials destroyed and voters
prevented from casting ballots. The arrival of reinforcements from the
presidential guard to military camps on the outskirts of the capital and the
removal of certain officers are ominous signs. Both sides can easily mobilise
militias and armed youth groups.

Over the weekend
thousands of Congolese reportedly crossed into neighbouring Congo-Brazzaville,
fearing violence. Rumours of machetes distributed, gangs mobilising and a heavy
security presence risk spreading panic in the capital. Leaders of the Catholic
Church, which deployed some 30,000 observers more than any other group during
polling, are reluctant to publish their findings in the fear that they would fan
tension. Over the weekend Bishop Nicolas Djombo described the situation as a
"train running into the wall". The International Criminal Court (ICC)
prosecutor, meanwhile, has stated that the DRC situation was under watch.

The electoral
commission's preliminary results, due shortly, will almost certainly show Kabila
leading. But given the body's partisanship and widespread irregularities, they
are unlikely to inspire much confidence. Opposition politicians will reject them
out of hand. The Supreme Court should resolve disputes, but with that body also
stuffed with Kabila loyalists, losers are more likely to take their grievances
to the streets. The scale of bloodshed is difficult to predict: Kinshasa will
bear the brunt of clashes, but violence could explode in other areas, especially
opposition strongholds like the Eastern Kasai, where the governor has already
declared a state of emergency, Western Kasai, South Kivu, Lubumbashi and
Equateur. Splits within the army cannot be ruled out.

Urgent
international and regional action is needed both to rescue the elections and to
persuade Congolese leaders to refrain from violence. Neither will be easy.
Widespread technical flaws and deliberate fudging makes revealing genuine
results difficult, while Kabila's contortion of democratic institutions leaves
few avenues for elites to resolve disputes peacefully. Amid deep polarisation in
Kinshasa, the two leading candidates appear reluctant to even to talk to each
other, let alone accept defeat. But the following measures offer the best hope:

·  The election
commission must count ballots transparently, according to the Congolese election
law, and in the presence of local and international observers and publicly
announce it will do so. It must publish results polling station by polling
station, to allow for independent verification, both for presidential results
and for the almost forgotten legislative contests.

·  Authorities
must explain clearly how political parties and observers can contest the results
of any polling station. Those stations that returned suspicious results or where
observers report irregularities should be subject to rigorous investigation
again in the presence of observers with clear criteria applied when
disqualifying ballots. Voters in areas where polling did not take place should
be given the opportunity to vote.

·  All Congolese
leaders must avoid inflammatory language. Given that protests will almost
certainly turn violence, opposition politicians should appeal immediately to
their supporters to stay off the streets.

·  If protests do
occur, security forces must refrain from heavy handed responses with clear
instructions along those lines given by military and police commanders and by
the president. Any violence should be subject to investigation by Congolese and
international human rights groups, as well as the ICC, if appropriate.

·  The UN, AU and
EU should urgently dispatch a high-level team to mediate between factions. A
power sharing deal should be avoided, but mediators should explore options for
alternative dispute resolution or independent oversight of existing mechanisms
possibly under AU auspices and with international support given distrust in the
responsible Congolese institutions. Mediators must also devise a way to avert a
constitutional crisis, with Kabila's term officially expiring this week.

·  In the
meantime, the UN, donors and regional leaders must avoid statements that could
legitimise a badly flawed vote and destroy what is left of their credibility in
the Congo. They cannot paper over electoral flaws. No leader should be
congratulated until all disputes are resolved.

·  The UN should
deploy additional peacekeepers to the western provinces and Kinshasa or risk
abandoning its mandate of civilian protection. A bloodbath in the capital of a
country hosting the world's largest UN peace operation is unthinkable.

Beyond the
immediate danger of results being rejected and violence escalating, a president
with an illegitimate mandate poses a grave threat to the country's peace and
security. Only a leader that Congolese believe has been elected freely can
possibly resolve the country's multiple problems. Losers unfairly excluded from
the political system may easily take up arms, as in neighbouring Burundi and
Central African Republic. Today's crisis will not have surprised careful
observers of the Congo, resulting as it did in part from the quiet disengagement
over recent years of international and regional actors. Now, however, they need
to engage again and quickly.