20 11 12 ICG – DR Congo’s Goma: Avoiding a New Regional War

The past week
has shown history repeating itself in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC), with the same tragic consequences for civilians in the region (see
Crisis Group briefing from 4 October for background).

On 15 November
2012, the M23 rebel movement, with – according to the DRC – the backing of
Rwanda’s armed forces, broke the 25 July de facto ceasefire observed with the
Congolese army (Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo, FARDC) and
launched an offensive against Goma, the capital of North Kivu province.

Unable, despite
numerous attempts, to extend its control over the resource-rich Masisi
territory, constrained by Uganda’s closure of its Bunangana
border with the DRC and frustrated by the decision of the UN Security Council to
place its main leader, Sultani Makenga, on the UN sanctions list, the M23 had
finally decided to make real its threat to attack the city. On 18 November,
following three days of fighting, the movement broke the FARDC’s resistance and
tried to force the government of President Joseph Kabila to negotiate.

On 19 November,
after several fruitless attempts at talks and an ultimatum from the M23 to the
government, fighting broke out inside Goma, a city under the defence of the
FARDC and UN peacekeepers (MONUSCO). The M23’s ultimatum had demanded the
FARDC’s withdrawal from, and the demilitarisation of, Goma and its airport; the
reopening of the Bunangana border post; and an inclusive negotiation process to
bring in the unarmed Congolese political opposition, civil society and the
diaspora. By making this demand, the M23 aimed to reduce the crisis to a
domestic affair, thereby preventing Kinshasa from internationalising it in order to
negotiate a solution at the regional level through the International Conference
on the Great Lakes Region (ICGL R) with those neighbouring countries that
allegedly support the M23 rebellion.

While
negotiations were on the verge of starting in Goma, President Kabila ultimately
refused to recognise the M23 as a legitimate interlocutor, and clashes broke out
inside the city.The rebels entered Goma on 20 November, forcing the Congolese
army to retreat to Sake.

The new
offensive is a tragic repeat of the threat by Laurent Nkunda’s Conseil National
de Défense du Peuple (CNDP) to take Goma in 2008. Once again, the civilian
population is paying a heavy price. As in 2008, the same causes could produce
the same fearful effects:

• the fall of Goma could lead to
  serious human rights abuses against civilian
  populations;
• the settling of accounts or even
  targeted extrajudicial executions against authorities and civil society
  activists who have taken a stance against the M23 since the beginning of the
  crisis in March could raise the death toll and fuel more
  violence;
• Kinshasa’s capitulation to the
  M23 could send shock waves throughout the Kivus and relaunch open warfare
  between the DRC and Rwanda; and
• the UN and the ICGLR, both
  responsible for conflict management in the region, are being
  discredited.

As immediate
steps, regional and international actors must
secure:

• an end to fighting inside
  Goma;
• M23’s commitment to respect
  MONUSCO’s mandate to fully protect civilians; and
• M23’s concrete assurances,
  visible on the ground, to respect civilians and property in areas under their
  control, and prevent further human rights abuses.

To avoid a
regional implosion, the following steps are also necessary:

• explicit condemnation by the UN
  Security Council, African Union (AU) and ICGLR of external involvement in the
  fighting;
• immediate efforts by MONUSCO’s
  leadership to seek to negotiate and secure a formal ceasefire, as well as
  accelerate the deployment of the Joint Verification Mechanism and the Neutral
  Force agreed by the ICGLR;
• sanctions by the European Union
  (EU), UN Security Council, and especially France, the UK and the U.S., as well
  as the AU, not only against the rebellion’s leaders, but also against their
  external supporters;
• an investigation by the
  International Criminal Court into the actions of the M23 and new armed groups,
  and the request by the court that MONUSCO transfer its files concerning M23
  leaders; and
• the immediate establishment of a
  joint fact-finding mission in the region by the AU, EU, Belgian, South African
  and U.S. special envoys for the Great Lakes to determine the best course for
  arriving at the long-term resolution of this crisis.

The immediate
priority is to stop the current fighting and protect civilians.

Long-term
solutions will require that the UN Security Council, AU and ICGLR ensure that
peace agreements and that stabilisation plans no longer remain empty promises.
To achieve this, coordinated and unequivocal pressure on the Congolese
government and the M23 rebel movement, as well as the latter’s external
supporters, is required from international donors and regional
actors.