24 07 13 DPA: Fresh fighting dampens hopes for peace talks in Congo

Presently, neither side
seems ready to make significant compromises for a deal.

But there are signs that
the Congolese army is beginning to gain a stronger hand in its fights with the
M23. That, analysts say, is a generally positive sign.

Additional backing for
the army also comes from the United Nations, which says its newest intervention
brigade, the first UN force ever given a mandate to actively rout out rebel
groups, has about 2,000 soldiers ready.

"At this point,
about two-thirds of the intervention brigade troops are on the ground,"
says Madnodje Mounoubai, spokesman for the UN peacekeeping mission in Congo
(Monusco).

The UN backup should give
added weight to efforts to assert more authority over areas that have been
largely out of government control for nearly two decades.

M23, formed in 2012 by
mostly Tutsi army defectors, has only made such control harder to achieve. Its
forces took Goma, the most important city in the east, in November.

The humiliating defeat
for the Congolese army pushed Kinshasa to take
part in ongoing peace talks in neighbouring Uganda. M23 was happy to
participate, as it believed it was gaining political recognition and
negotiating from what might have been its strongest position.

Fast forward several
months and the tables appear turned.

Congo's army has improved its logistical
capacities – including ensuring a regular flow of salaries, weapons and
ammunitions to soldiers on the front. It has also managed to relocate corrupt
commanders to other, less fractious parts of the massive country of 72 million.

Jason Stearns, a veteran Congo analyst,
says that, while "the problems of the Congolese army are far from
over," his talks with UN officials and military commanders indicate that
the army has become a better fighting force.

According to Stearns, the
army still suffers from the triple-blow of "patronage, racketeering and
impunity."

Meanwhile, at M23,
infighting weakened the group and splintered its ranks. One of its founders,
Bosco Ntaganda, ended up on the losing side of the internal wars and was forced
to hand himself over to the International Criminal Court, where he is now
awaiting trial on war crimes charges.

At the same time, Rwanda, M23's
main backer, came under sanctions from Western nations. Kigali is in a Catch-22 situation now,
according to Thierry Vircoulon, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.

"If they don't
support M23, then M23 will be kicked out by the Congolese army," says
Vircoulon. "If they do support, they are under scrutiny and could face
sanctions."

In Uganda, talks
have been taking place haphazardly – when negotiators bother to show up.

The main deal on the
table would let M23 fighters mainstream into the Congolese army, though they
would likely be unable to control where they would be deployed.

This would mean M23's
backers and chiefs would lose their influence in the mineral-rich eastern Congo.
Moreover, the amnesty deals excludes immunity for internationally recognized
war crimes. For M23, this could be a deal breaker.

Human Rights Watch this
week revealed that M23 rebels have summarily executed at least 44 people and
raped at least 61 women and girls since March.

Daniel Bekele, the Africa
director at Human Rights Watch, says that Kigali
remains deeply involved in supporting the group, which means it might hang on.

"Not only is Rwanda allowing
its territory to be used by the abusive M23 to get recruits and equipment, but
the Rwandan military is still directly supporting the M23," Bekele said.

Vircoulon and others say
this raises fears that there is little incentive for a strong focus on the
peace talks.

"M23 has not bled
enough to really resume negotiations," he noted.

The Congolese government
might also hold off on agreeing to concessions in the hopes that its army, with
UN support, continues to make gains. Of late, it has only sent low-level delegations
to the Kampala
talks.

Thus, new pressure from
the army reduces the chances of an escalation in violence, analysts say. But it
does not seem to bode well for the peace talks.