11 09 13 The National Consultations: Selling Out?
How
so?
While
everyone in Kinshasa––indeed, in the country––has been enthusiastic about the
talks, people have radically different understandings of what should be
accomplished. There
are broadly speaking three different groups:
1. Some,
especially those behind Etienne Tshisekedi's wing of the UDPS, wanted to contest
the very legitimacy of the elections and President Kabila. While Tshisekedi is
probably inspired by the Conférence national souveraine of 1992, which
elected him as prime minister, these are very different times and very few
believe that an assembly organized by Kabila could bring about his ouster;
2. Others
wanted to use the forum as a means to push through national
reforms––decentralization, security sector reform, elections. While the usual
place for these debates is in parliament, some members of the opposition feel
that they need to be included in the structures that oversee these
reforms;
3. A
final group sees the concertations as an opportunity to enter into a
government of national unity, which would see the opposition enter into
government.
The
proceedings, which are scheduled to last for 15 days, are beginning to confirm
the third option. The president of the senate and a facilitator of the forum,
Léon Kengo wa Dondo, has officially stated
that the goal is a government of national unity. In private, his co-facilitator
Aubin Minaku, the president of the national assembly, has confirmed this.
The
goal of co-opting the opposition would not be to bring about national
reconciliation or state reform. Persistent rumors have suggested that Kabila is
considering setting up a commission to change the constitution to allow him to
run for a third term in 2016. While this constitutional change itself would be
unconstitutional (Article 220 forbids any messing with term limits), and the
jury is still out on whether Kabila will go ahead with this plan, he could
probably pull it off if the opposition is sufficiently divided and/or co-opted.
Initial
indications would suggest that the talks are having that effect, as critics of
the government are attracted by lavish per diems (one participant said they
could be getting $200/day) and a possible place in the government. The MLC, the
second largest opposition party, is attending, led by Thomas Luhaka, although
the wing of Jean-Lucien Busa is baulking. And while Jean-Pierre Bemba has
reportedly issued clear instructions to his parliamentarians not to enter into
an alliance with Kabila, this could be a golden opportunity for some to line
their pockets (there are good precedents: Kamitatu, Mwamba, Senga, etc. have
jumped ship in the past).
A
similar, smaller dynamic is underway within the UDPS. A group of somewhere
between five and twenty UDPS MPs, led by Serge Mayamba, is taking
part in the concertations, defying Tshisekedi's orders. The civil
society, meanwhile, is also divided, with some members participating and many
others abstaining. And Léon Kengo, the leader of the UFC opposition party, is
not only attending but is presiding over the assembly. It is only the UNC led by
Vital Kamerhe that appears to be more or less united its opposition to the
talks.
All
this makes sense. For Kamerhe, who seeks to emerge as the main opposition
candidate for the 2016 elections, this is a good opportunity to prove that he is
a real opponent to Kabila (as a former Kabila loyalist, his credentials have
often been questioned). For Kengo and Luhaka, this good be as good an
opportunity as any to obtain a ministerial position. For Tshisekedi, the
concertations will again prove that this government is made up of
opportunists.
But,
while the talks have only just begun, it would seem that the real winner may be
Kabila, who could once again succeed in fragmenting the opposition by appealing
to their self-interest. He may prove those Congolese pundits right who, with
typical sarcasm, call the concertations "le monologue national," or
"extraordinary congress of the PPRD [Kabila's main party]".