03 09 14 AfricanArguments : Kabila eyes lifetime presidency and must be given a way out – By Theophile Costeur

A first effort from the President to remain in power occurred during
the 2013 National Dialogue which regrouped the major part of the
political elite, majority and opposition.  President Kabila tried to
turn the Dialogue into a forum on the modification of the constitution.
This effort met with an almost total refusal from its participants and
the final report included a statement of refusal to modify the
constitution’s art. 220 (which limits the President’s mandate to two
terms.) Unfortunately, this statement was eliminated from by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">the list of one hundred priority recommendations drafted by the Dialogue’s follow up committee in December 2013.

Another scenario imagined by the Presidential Majority was the
inclusion of the opposition in a government of national cohesion. As its
members would very likely prefer to remain in power beyond the 2016
election deadline, this was a way to postpone the by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">next
elections and to buy time.  A variant of this idea was to put Senate
President Kengo Wa Dondo in power as President of the Republic, to
prepare for a return for Kabila after the completion of his term.

Until the end of June, it seemed likely that this would happen, until
for reasons that remain unclear, Kabila put a halt to the idea and
decided to force a solution. During the 30 June Independence Day parade,
he displayed his Republican Guard in full force and sent a message that
he remains in charge and controls important military means. During his
speech he underlined that he would apply the recommendations from the
National Dialogue, but without any by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">haste…

From about mid-July however, the President’s PPRD party and some members of his Presidential Majority by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">started a campaign in favour of the modification of the constitution.
PPRD President Boshab and Presidential Advisor Kambila introduced the
argument that the 2006 constitution was drafted by warring parties
without any legitimacy, and that it was not adapted to the current situation which is oriented to the launching of the DRC as an ‘emergent’ country.

It is too easily forgotten that this same constitution was massively
approved by referendum in December 2005 and that President Kabila
himself, in his 18 February 2006 speech, declared that the vote was a
victory for the Congolese people and not of one party over another; the
constitution inaugurated a new era of by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">institutional
stability and a departure from the period of ‘transition’. Kabila
explicitly referred to art. 220. Still, the head of the ‘Maison Civile’
of the President, Pastor Théodore Mugalu, called in an by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">interview for a new constitution “that respects God” because the current constitution excludes God…

Indeed,
why the sudden need to discard or modify the 2006 constitution? The
more general argument against recurrent revisions is that institutions
take time to take root, and that a constitutional modification with each
new election (as happened in 2011 and is now scheduled for 2016) is not
really conducive to constitutional stability. The current constitution
was meant to inaugurate a new republic and to prevent a return to
dictatorship. Does the country really need a new constitution adapted to
the ‘new’ project of transforming the DRC into an ‘emergent’ country?

There is not a single element in the current constitution that would
impede the DRC from taking this path, except of course if – and this is
the real argument – one equates the person of Kabila with stability. But
haven’t we heard this before under the Mobutu regime? A modification or
the introduction of a new constitution very probably will lead exactly
to the contrary: an economy to enrich the incumbents – who will no
longer have to fear electoral sanction – and the likelihood sooner or
later of a new rebellion or by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">armed conflict. Monopolization of power in the DRC inevitably means that one needs military action to have access to power.

Obviously, nobody can object to a sovereign people voting in a new or
modified constitution – provided this vote is transparent, free and
fair. But it is hard to see how a constitutional referendum could be won
by the incumbent President without the massive use of fraud: there
seems to be a general rejection of Kabila’s rule all over the country.
This is most explicit in his by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">home province of Katanga – a result of his rule by and in favour of the private interests of the presidential family, with little concern for the population.

Another possibility would be the forced vote by the United Chambers
of Parliament, as occurred in January 2011 – but this would give much
less legitimacy to the operation than a (possibly rigged) referendum.
The whole operation entails significant risks for the current regime. A
key element in the by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">setup is the ANR security service, which has been engaging in a campaign of intimidation of the opposition and by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">the general
population. This was shown by the arrest of the Secretary General of
the UNC Party Jean Bertrand Ewanga and the previously unheard of short
arrest of CENI President Malu Malu, respectively a Member of Parliament
and an official with the rank of Minister!

If the entire project is implemented, and if it succeeds because of
fear from the population or lack of an alternative, the consequences
will be very serious. President Kabila will have eliminated all limits
to the exercise of his power, and will remain until he dies or is forced
into exile. His current rule in favour of his by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">family will of course be intensified. The politics in favour of the enrichment of small elite will by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">continue.
Development will be limited to a series of symbolic and high prestige
projects. A group of opportunistic and very mediocre managers will
overtake all levels of power, in the by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">image
of the current ANR Director General. And most importantly: Official
Lies will once again become the Official Truth, with all the devastating
consequences this has on the country’s social fabric.

Where have we heard this before? Yes, under Mobutu, and previous
Mobutu stalwarts such as Minister Kin Kiey Mulumba again occupy key
positions.  A change of constitution will gradually imply a by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">return to the
point of departure in 1990: Mobutu.  Does this mean that fifteen years
of endless suffering for the Congolese population will have been totally
useless? Does this mean that twenty three years of struggle for a
regime change will have been pointless? Does this mean that the
international community since 1999 has wasted its time and money? This
scenario should at all cost be avoided.

It is still possible to give President Kabila an honourable way out.
He undeniably has his merits, most notably in putting an end to the
1998-2002 war, reuniting the country and in giving the country a new and
forward looking constitution (yet to be fully implemented.) But all
these positive points now risk being jeopardized, and the scenario set
for a new war. What motivates Kabila is probably fear of what will
happen if he steps down. It is possible (and crucial) to give him
guarantees for his personal safety and the safety of his family.

But international pressure must also be discreetly stepped up and it
must be made publicly clear that no international support exists for the
return to a personal rule through the adoption of a new constitution.
Pressure could potentially be exerted through selected neighbouring
countries. It should also be made clear that the same rule of limits to
presidential mandates will be by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">applied to other African countries, such as Rwanda or Uganda.

Some say that it is ‘African’ to remain in power for a lifetime. It would be more by The weDownload Manager" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;">correct
to say that this era is gone and many African countries have witnessed a
growing respect for the constitution, institutionalisation of a regime
rather than a person and the end of personal rule.  Ultimately however,
in the DRC, everything will depend on the emergence of a politically
realistic and competent alternative to the current presidency. There are
many, but they must have the courage to stand up.

Theophile Costeur, Brussels,